The record industry in the UK, anyway, is in a sense of false security in an Indian summer where CD sales are actually up: Why?- because they get picked up with the shopping in Tesco.

The spiral frog appeal to advertisers (Remember I've just stopped being one) is to target a demographic of 18 - 35's who don't watch TV, nor read papers and it's very attractive to the ad. agencies to push: " Catching brand loyalty" at a young age. That's why it'll probably succeed: because the advertisers, not the music, will drive the turnover.

It's not going off at a tangent to point out that both Rupert Murdoch and the Daily Mail Group are launching free newspapers at precisely this market in the immediate future. The business model is that nobody, in the agencies, gave Metro a cat in hell's chance of success, but five years later it's amongst the most highly profitable titles, and I think you'll find that in all these initiatives, the backers are prepared to sit it out and wait

But taking your other point, I don't think it'll make a blind bit of difference to the hardened downloader, who is probably, by now, getting to the top end of the target age group (Or so I read).

N.B. This is a pretty UK slanted view of the situation!