Wow, that is weird. Is the fake primary some relic of the past or something?
Only the recent past....
I dislike the concept and execution of caucuses in this country. Primaries are a much fairer mechanism, and I'm glad I live in a state that uses primaries instead.
Then you may appreciate the reason we got stuck in this mess -- a hope that Pat Robertson might not overwhelm the caucus system twice:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/273555.htmlThe result in 2008, though, is still very broken. My ideal would be a single national primary day with open primaries (and more than 2 parties) and only one shot. None of this "Hey, now that our guy has lost in February let's run over there in March and piss on the other guy's picnic!" stuff.
Barack is definitely on fire, and I think he wins the nomination, superdelegates be damned. After the stolen election in 2000, I do not think the Democratic party is going to nominate someone who got less popular support. It's not out of the question, but I think it's highly unlikely.
He is on fire and I have another half-baked theory. No, it's not about the weather....
Now that we're really in to the primary season, there are lots of rallies and lots of footage (and sound clips) of the candidates raisng their voices to large crowrds. Now I really want to be careful to adjust for sexst/chauvinist bias, but my feeling is this:
Obama's voice continues to be smooth, mellow, confident and encouraging in a positive way. Like he's really happy about moving into the White House and he thinks that will be a good thing.
Clinton's voice is strained, like she is running to catch up with a train that is picking up speed. I don't want to read too much into it, but I feel like I hear slight shades of anger and annoyance. A certain degree of beating the drum to make the galley slaves row harder.
Again, this is after trying to adjust for pitch. Everybody's different.
Be that as it may, an Oprah or FDR probably have more of a shot at the nomination that a Pee Wee Herman or a Phyllis Diller.
So call it the Sonic Theory. FDR had the magic.
I think the superdelegtes will come around and support the leader in pledged delegates. The whole purpose of superdelegates is to avoid a situation where a very weak candidate somehow racks up the most delegates and then gets caught with a hooker right before the convention. I don't think they'll change the result just to deliver the nomination to a candidate that's bleeding popular support in almost every demographic.
But, then again, I didn't think the current gang of idiots would lie to get us into a war in the Middle East. So what do I know.
I hope you are right on the superdelegates.
Time to send another email
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