Well, I disagree that they could make it up elsewhere. And SageTV is only selling software, so I think it's a bit of an apples/oranges thing.
If my subscription keeps Tivo in the black (which it seems to barely be doing as it is), then I'm happy.
I was pretty surprised by the second hardware announcement as well. The whole reason for making the TivoHD was because the Series 3 had so many non-essential features like the remote and the cable.
I guess the main reason it surprises me is because you can get a TivoHD for $200, and add your own external hard drive. I just checked, and my Series 3 (which admittedly has more space than the TivoHD) with a 750GB drive gives me 131 hours of HD space (and 1244 of SD). You can get a 1TB drive and a very good enclosure for $200 on Newegg, and then you've saved $200.
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Matt