I think so. I'd also say that at $300 Million (in today's market place) they're seriously over-valued. An article I just read (like so many others) comments on acquisition, but I believe anyone savvy enough would wait for something closer to a firesale.

As I've said before, TiVo still has a lot going for it that other products don't have, but these features are getting fewer and farther between. They're also fairly simple/trivial features to add to already robust software from NDS and Digeo. A lot of people seem to think TiVo is about "the service" - well, it's not. It's all about "the software." The "service" is just the little myth they use to tie you to a monthly bill. Their major recurring cost is listing data supply - and that's a similar cost for everyone in the industry. Companies that have already rolled this cost into their current non-DVR products, and therefore your cable/satellite bill, can afford to deploy DVRs at significantly lower prices (per month, etc..) I'm not saying they will of course. Most of these companies also won't have imediate control of the software and will have to licence it - but given their customer volumes, their per-unit pricing is sure to be very low. NDS/DirecTV having the same parent likely have the sweetest deal going.

Bruno