For what it's worth, used HR10-250's on eBay are going for around $200. New Series3 boxes, from Amazon, are $606. If you want to maintain the status quo, a used HR10-250 may be the right answer, and it's relatively cheap.

For me, when I get back home in December, I'll be pondering all these options. OTA reception is excellent anywhere that I might want to live. As such, the only question is where I want to get my SD cable channels (e.g., Comedy Central) and the occasional HD cable channel (mostly HBO). Keeping my HR10-250 seems like an obvious strategy, but DirecTV doesn't support it any more and it's just a matter of time until it dies.

That leads toward the Series 3 + local digital cable. I'm not entirely jazzed about the outrageous prices of local cable, but it's at least easily available, and they'd be happy to also offer me Internet and phone service...