Estimates are that Apple pushed 700K devices in the first day. US-only. You still don't think it's going to outsell the iPhone? My hypothesis/prediction has been brewing for a while and it's not something I said at launch day back in January. But given what's been developing in the past month in terms of pre-prders, reviews, developer adoption, app releases and first-day public reaction, I believe it's a reasonable analysis. Couple it with some pretty strong rumors regarding the next OS update and...

Seems like these guys have some guesses as to how well the iPad will do as well:

http://www.apple.com/ipad/ready-for-ipad/
http://googlemobile.blogspot.com/2010/04/google-services-on-ipad-and-tablet.html

Keep in mind that "iPhone" is not "iPod + iPhone" in my prediction - the iPod Touch itself currently outsells the iPhone.

Amazon has moved so few Kindle units that they refuse to publish their numbers. They're already getting pressure from other similarly priced competitors that offer perhaps a little more "wow" such as the Barnes and Noble Nook. The market is not willing to buy in (high volumes) at the price Amazon is asking. Do you think they've sold 700k units total in the past two years? I don't.

The pricing of eBook readers have been holding them back in the market since long before the iPad was announced. e-ink was supposed to be a low cost alternative to other displays, but so far that hasn't happened. Maybe because of poor process, not high enough volumes or simply greed on the part of manufacturers. I don't know. hat I do know is that the number of people that will spend $250+ on a device that only reads books, and proprietary ones at that, is extremely limited.

When a device like the iPad is priced at $499, it makes a device like the Kindle at $250 seem like $250 too high. I'm sorry, the Kindle and similarly priced devices will only go down in sales. Significantly. That's a grounded hypothesis. IMO, to think otherwise is foolish if not crazy-cakes.

You should expect to see radical change in what Amazon comes out with next, both in device capabilities and price point. Or maybe they'll simply abandon the device completely, as they're likely going to be making a decent chunk of change selling their books to iPad/iPod/iPhone owners - they'll also be paying Apple 30% though.