Are you serious? Do you think people buy a game console and that's the end of the commitment? People dump huge amounts of money into software and accessories for their game consoles, too. Yeah, okay, there's not as much downside to having two consoles as there is to two phones, but think about the market share that Sony kept when the PS2 was able to play PSone games, despite the fact that those people apparently were interested in playing games they already owned, which would mean that they already owned a PSone.


Well, the thing about the iPhone, in addition to being a generational improvement on smartphones, is that it has brought smartphones to the masses. You never used to see a mass of people on the streets with a PalmOS or WinCE or Blackberry phone, but now folks working at the Arby's have an iPhone. There will certainly always be a segment of the market that is uninterested in paying a premium for smartphones, but that market is shrinking.

My point being that people may start thinking of smartphones as the default phone choice. Of course, you do have a point that people might start basing decisions about new phones on their investment in their old phones, but my point is that I think that the smartphone market is still expanding dramatically, and there will continue to be a lot of new users for many years to come.