These comments about "I'll never get another point&shoot" are pretty interesting. I think this is one of those "128kbit MP3s are all anybody ever needs" kinds of things. For many people, they really and truly don't need 12 megapixels of glorious high-resolution low-noise expensive-glass D-SLR goodness, and phones are now getting good enough to do the job. (I've made 4x6 prints from my iPhone 3G and they look every bit as good as 4x6 prints from anything else, but I wouldn't try to blow them up, and I lucked out in terms of getting proper exposure from the get-go.)

My very first digital camera (a Canon G1, circa late 2000) was three megapixels and I loved that thing. Unsurprisingly, phones with three megapixels are enough for many people's needs.

As such, I'd expect the low-end point-and-shoot market, the $100 cheapo models, to suffer. I have less worry about the $250+ nerdy models with HD video, high-ISO performance, and so forth. While some of the cell phone vendors are integrating "real" lens systems and sensors, this increases thickness. Hard to say how that will all shake out.

I wouldn't worry about the D-SLR market. "Serious" photographers will always be looking to step up to something that doesn't fit in their pocket.